The final weekend. One slate of conference championships to decide who is playing in the College Football Playoff. I have once again given my top 25, but really there are only 7 teams with a chance to make it. Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Baylor are the only teams with even a slight chance to make it in, so let’s take a look at each team and their paths to the playoffs.
Georgia: They are in. It doesn’t matter what happens this weekend, win or lose, Georgia has done enough to make it into the playoffs. They will be playing this weekend for the SEC Championship title and the #1 overall ranking, but they will have a shot at the National Championship either way.
Michigan: Wow. First of all, how incredible is it that Michigan is here? Just one year ago you’d be hard-pressed to find someone who thought Harbaugh should keep his job. After a disappointing 2-4 season last year, it seemed like all hope was lost for both the program and Harbaugh himself. Michigan AD Warde Manuel cut his salary in half and reduced his buyout, giving his coach an extremely short leash for the season. Harbaugh’s response? Fire half his staff and replace them with younger guys who share his vision and can help change the entire culture. All his work paid off last Saturday, as Michigan finally beat Ohio State for the first time in 10 years, setting them up for a Big Ten Title. As for the CFP, they most likely need to beat Iowa. A win against Iowa will lock them into the playoffs and the #2 seed (assuming Georgia also wins). A loss and things get tricky. If Michigan loses, they will need some help. A Cincinnati loss to Houston and Baylor beating Oklahoma State would definitely see Michigan in as a 2-loss team, but they don’t want to leave it up to chance. Win and in, Wolverines.
Cincinnati: WIN. This is the most must-win game this weekend. The biggest game in the history of the College Football Playoff. Every Group of 5 team in the country should be rooting for the Bearcats in the hopes they can break through and finally be represented on the sport’s biggest stage. If Cincinnati loses, they have virtually no chance of being in the Playoff.
Alabama: They really need to beat Georgia. If they take a loss to the Bulldogs and Cincinnati, Oklahoma State, and Michigan win, I think Bama is out. If they win and those 3 teams also win, Cincinnati will probably be the odd men out. So it’s simple. Win and in.
Oklahoma State: Win and in. Beat Baylor. 12-1 Big 12 Champions? No way they aren’t in. Easy. Onto the next.
Notre Dame: This is tricky. To be honest, I don’t think they have a chance. I put them here because they only have 1 loss, but Brian Kelly really hurt this team. He abandoned them a week before the rankings come out and effectively ended their meaningful season. Even without him leaving, Notre Dame would probably need losses from Cincinnati, Michigan, Oklahoma State, and Alabama to be a sure thing in the playoffs. I don’t really see that happening, but this is college football, anything is possible. Hopefully this is the year that makes Notre Dame realize they should join a conference. If they were playing for the ACC title against Pittsburgh or Wake Forest this weekend, they’d be easily in with a win. As it stands, they are too big of cowards to join a conference, and they will finish on the outside looking in as a result.
Baylor: I also think this is a massive longshot, but who knows? The Bears need Chaos. A convincing win over Oklahoma State is the first step. Then they’d need Cincinnati, Michigan, and Alabama to lose. At that point, the committee will be forced to take Brian Kelly into consideration. Do the 11-2 Big 12 Champion Baylor Bears trump 11-1 Notre Dame without their head coach? I think so. Again, they will need chaos, but if it happens, I think they can leap up.
Prediction:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Cincinnati
4. Oklahoma State
Let’s not overthink. All these teams will get it done this weekend. No Chaos, but an interesting top 4 to say the least! Be sure to watch and come back next week for my bowl predictions!
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