The big day is finally here. After months of waiting and anticipating, it is finally Draft Day! So, here I present my 2023 Mock Draft. A few notes before we get started: As it is nearly impossible to predict trades, I have not allowed them for this exercise. Also, when making these picks, I try my best to put myself in the mind of each GM and really think about what teams will do and how they will structure their rosters. This is not just me picking the best available players, I look at trends of specific GMs and coaches and how they like to build their teams. My last few drafts have averaged about 28 players who ended up actually being drafted in the first round, right on pace with those over at ESPN. So, even if my exact player to team picks are incorrect, at least you’ll get a good idea of the names you’ll hear tonight. As always, thank you for your support, and without further ado, let's get into it!
1. Carolina Panthers (from CHI)
The Pick: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
The Panthers are quietly building a pretty decent team. They filled important holes with the free agency signings of Miles Sanders, DJ Chark, and Adam Theilen, and their division is as wide open as it has ever been. Instead of waiting another year or two to find their guy, the Panthers aggressively moved up to take advantage of a division that has become the race to rebuild. Bryce Young is the best quarterback in this draft, despite his size. Anthony Richardson has a higher ceiling, but Young has a much higher floor and will be ready sooner. My bold prediction: the Panthers make the playoffs next season in Bryce Young’s rookie year.
2. Houston Texans
The Pick: EDGE Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
The Texans do not need a QB here. The class next year is better, and they at least have a semi-serviceable guy in Mills for another year. Houston’s young secondary is one of the team’s biggest strengths, but their pass rush leaves much to be desired. Personally, I think Will Anderson is the better player, but Wilson fits the mold of edge rushers that head coach DeMeco Ryans is looking for. He’s big, strong, and an easy 3 down lineman. If the Texans do go edge rusher, look for them to take Wilson over Anderson.
3. Arizona Cardinals
The Pick: EDGE Will Anderson, Jr., Alabama
I think the Cardinals only trade out here for a good haul. Staying put makes the most sense when you have a guy like Anderson, who can immediately fill the hole left by JJ Watt’s retirement. Often compared to Von Miller, Anderson has all the tools to be a feared pass rusher for years to come. I love the idea of first year head coaches getting someone on their side of the ball with their first pick. Jonathan Gannon will be thrilled to get a guy he can build his defense around.
4. Indianapolis Colts
The Pick: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
There is no way the Colts do not draft a QB in the first round. As to who it will be? Your guess is as good as mine. I’m going with Levis here strictly because he better fits the mold of a big tall quarterback with good arm strength, which is what the Colts have been valuing recently. Levis is a high ceiling low floor guy who is being drafted solely for his physical tools. His production is mediocre at best, so there needs to be trust in the coaching staff to do some work. It's a big job for new head coach Shane Steichen, but if Levis hits he is the next Josh Allen.
5. Seattle Seahawks
The Pick: QB Anthony Richardson, Florida
Yeah this one is a surprise, but doesn’t it actually make sense? When are they going to pick this high again? Geno Smith looked like a seasoned pro last year, and the Seahawks expect to be winning games. When will they pick this high again? Richardson is an athletic freak, but is still raw as a quarterback. However, the Florida offense was a very complex system and many believe that with a couple years as a backup, he can break out as an elite NFL QB. Smith is on a 3 year deal and will be 35 when his contract expires. Find his replacement now in a guy with one of the highest ceilings in recent memory and then the transition will be smooth. I think at the very least, the Seahawks are seriously considering this.
6. Detroit Lions
The Pick: CB Devon Witherspoon, Illinois
This is the hardest decision of the draft. The Lions are honestly praying the Seahawks DO take Jalen Carter, just so they aren’t faced with this crossroads. Before the recent scandal, I believed Carter was the pick here. But now, after 4 players on the Lions were suspended for gambling, I just don’t think the Lions can take a risk on a guy with character concerns. And it’s not like Witherspoon is a slouch, he is a clear cut best corner in this draft and can be an elite lockdown defender at the next level. Witherspoon plays with the kind of discipline Dan Campbell is looking for, and after trading Jeff Okudah, the Lions have a hole at corner. The Lions defense is slowly starting to take shape.
7. Las Vegas Raiders
The Pick: QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State
I think the Raiders will try and trade up for Stroud, but the price will be too high. After 6 picks of pure agony pass, hoping not to see him, their front office is thrilled to find he is still on the board. Something about Stroud just feels like a Josh McDaniels quarterback. He has strong discipline and is very coachable, which is exactly what McDaniels is looking for. I’m very split on CJ Stroud. On one hand, he has had games where he sees the field clearly and takes over like a Madden game. But on the other hand, the games against Michigan made him look like he didn’t know how to effectively read blitz packages and schemes. This point was only emphasized by his extremely low S2 score, a test that measures a QBs ability to process and react to overwhelming stimuli. I’m not sold, but I believe McDaniels can get the most out of him.
8. Atlanta Falcons
The Pick: EDGE Nolan Smith, Georgia
The Falcons have a lot of options here with this pick. Jalen Carter will be tempting, but he isn’t necessarily the best fit, so not worth the character concerns. They’ll look at Bijan Robinson, but it is just too early for a running back and a pass rusher is a much more valuable position. The Falcons have done a lot of work scouting Smith, and I think they really love him. This might be a little early, but you can reach on edge rushers. Best part of Smith is his marketability as a former Georgia player staying in the state. It all just makes sense.
9. Chicago Bears
The Pick: OL Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
It might kill them not to take Jalen Carter here, but if they really wanted him they would have stayed at 1.1. Instead, I think the Bears put themselves squarely in position to snag one of the draft’s top linemen, and they end up getting lucky with the best one. Skoronski has small arms, which makes some worried about his future as a tackle, but nobody doubts his talent or instincts on the offensive line. He is a sure plug and play no matter where he is put on the line, and will be a staple to build around for the next decade.
10. Philadelphia Eagles
The Pick: DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
The rich get richer. Jalen Carter is probably the most talented player in the class, but his recent legal troubles regarding his involvement in a fatal car crash has seen his stock plummet. The teams drafting ahead of the Eagles are young squads who need leadership and guys to buy into their culture. Philly, however, already has a good culture set in place and can leave it to their veterans to step up as leaders and guide Carter. After losing Javon Hargrave in free agency, the Eagles would love to fill their hole at DT. This is a slam dunk if Carter can work out his off the field issues.
11. Tennessee Titans
The Pick: Paris Johnson, Jr., Ohio State
The Titans have a lot of questions looming about their future and their rebuild, but one of the biggest is their offensive line. After years of having Taylor Lewan as their stud left tackle, the Titans now find themselves with two extremely shaky options at the position. It doesn’t matter who is playing in the backfield if they are immediately in grave danger as soon as the ball is snapped. Johnson, Jr. is arguably the best true tackle in the draft, so this is a perfect fit for the Titans. They’ll be very happy with how this shook out.
12. Houston Texans
The Pick: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
After a surprising pick on the defensive side of the ball to open the draft, the Texans should think about starting to build an offense for next year’s rookie QB. Currently, Houston’s WR1 is a 31 year old Robert Woods, who has lost a step after his ACL tear. This receiving core needs to get younger and more explosive, and Smith-Njigba is the perfect fit. Whoever the Texans end up with at QB is getting an elite playmaker.
13. Green Bay Packers
The Pick: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
This would be quite the slap in the face to Aaron Rodgers, who practically begged the Packers to take a first round pass-catcher for years. Green Bay has steadfastly refused in the past, but they may be forced to now with a much less experienced Jordan Love at the helm. Robert Tonyan left for the Bears in free agency and it does not appear the team will re-sign Marcedes Lewis, so there is a clear hole at tight end. Michael Mayer is a generational talent at the position, elite in both receiving and blocking. Dalton Kincaid is flashier, but Mayer has flawless fundamentals and understanding of the position. He’ll fit right in as an immediate starter for the Packers.
14. New England Patriots
The Pick; OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee
I never have a handle on Belichick’s draft board. He does not care what a player’s market is, he simply just wants to get his guys on the roster. I debated Christian Gonzalez here, but I think this is a much deeper class for corners than for offensive tackles. Wright might be a bit of a reach here, but he was a stud last year at Tennessee and a massive standout at the Senior Bowl, a trait Belichick really values. Wright is huge, and while he might only be successful on the right side of the line, he has the talent to be one of the best in the league. Belichick protects Mac Jones here and focuses on defense later on.
15. New York Jets
The Pick: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
The Jets found their quarterback. All of a sudden this team went from mediocre to a couple pieces away from being a serious contender. One of those pieces is a legitimate tackle to rely on. Mekhi Becton looked incredible before his injury, but there isn’t anybody else opposite him, and his health cannot be counted on. Rodgers needs protection, and the Jets cannot get cute trying to get it for him. Jones is a massive tackle with serious potential to be a solid contributor early on. This is a no-brainer.
16. Washington Commanders:
The Pick: DB Brian Branch, Alabama
This is a very interesting pick. The Commanders could go in many different directions, including Bijan Robinson, but I just don’t think they are in a situation to be selecting a running back in the first round. Instead, I think they address a massive need in their secondary after the release of safety Bobby McCain. Branch can play as a safety, a nickel corner, or really wherever they need him to be. His versatility will be extremely valuable to Ron Rivera and his staff, and he will be an instant contributor. I really love this fit and I am surprised it isn’t being talked about more.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pick: CB Christian Gonzalez, Penn State
This is a bitter-sweet situation for the Steelers to be in. They would certainly like a tackle here, but Christian Gonzalez falling to them here is a perfect scenario. Gonzalez is absolutely a top-10 talent, he just fell here because of team needs. I am sure the Steelers will not expect him here, but if he finds his way to them, they will immediately put their card in. In a division that requires facing Joe Burrow and his plethora of receivers, a strong secondary is important. Gonzalez will learn under the guidance of all-time great Patrick Peterson and has a shot to be a special talent at the cornerback position.
18. Detroit Lions
The Pick: RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
“Vontae Mack. No Matter What.” Sorry, I had to fit a Draft Day reference in here somewhere! But much like Sonny Weaver did with Mack, I have to believe the Lions have a strict “if he is there at 18 we have to take him” rule with Robinson. A generational talent, Robinson is arguably the most talented player in the whole draft. The Lions have bigger needs on their defensive line and will take a strong look at Dalton Kincaid, but at the end of the day, they’re going to take the guy who will take their offense to the next level. Detroit lost Jamaal Williams in free agency, so Robinson should get plenty of run time as a rookie splitting carries with D’Andre Swift.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Pick: EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
I’m not totally sure what the Bucs are looking to do here. After winning a Super Bowl just three years ago, they find themselves in an awkward in-between year. They aren’t exactly rebuilding, but it is clear they aren’t serious contenders. So with many options in front of them, they decide to go with a premium position and take Van Ness. Shaquil Barrett is 30 years old, and this pass rush could use some youth and spark. Van Ness is a high motor athlete with a great body and skillset. He is pretty raw, so he might take a year or two to get the swing of things, but the potential is there for a huge upside.
20. Seattle Seahawks
The Pick: EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson
The Seahawks invested in the future with their first pick of Anthony Richardson, so now they need to start building up their dreadful defensive line. Myles Murphy could easily find himself picked in the top 15, so the Seahawks snagging him here is quite the steal. Murphy will get a lot of playing time early on and be an instant difference maker in Seattle. The Seahawks were 30th last season in rushing yards allowed, and Murphy has great run stopping talent. I’d give these first two picks an A+.
21. Miami Dolphins
FORFEITED
22. Los Angeles Chargers
The Pick: WR Jordan Addison, USC
In general, I think the wide receiver class is looked on more favorably by the media than the actual teams. I think there is some decent talent, but most of them are slots, and they do not have 1st Round grades on a lot of draft boards. Addison, however, is one of the few who sneaks in. The former Biletnikoff winner is the exact type of player the Chargers need, someone who can stretch the field and take pressure off Mike Williams and the aging Keenan Allen. The fit just makes too much sense.
23. Baltimore Ravens
The Pick: CB Emmanuel Forbes, Mississippi St
I think the Ravens can wait on a receiver. I know I am in the minority, but again, there just aren’t very elite receivers in this class. Instead, the Ravens need to shore up their cornerback opposite Marlon Humphrey, who might not be around very long himself. This is a division that requires solid corners, and Forbes is an elite corner with serious ballhawk abilities. In fact, he holds the NCAA record with six career pick-sixes. I think he can even go higher this draft, potentially even to the Patriots all the way up at 14. Forbes is the real deal, and putting him opposite Marlon Humphrey will make Joe Burrow just that much more cautious in the matchups between the divisional foes.
24. Minnesota Vikings
The Pick: CB Deonte Banks, Maryland
In one of the better fits of the entire draft, the Vikings take cornerback Deonte Banks. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores loves running his defense with a lot of different blitz packages, many of which rely on cornerbacks playing man to man on an island. This is where Banks thrives. He had the highest press coverage rate of all corners in this draft last year, and his physicality and athleticism let him hang with some of the best. He is a perfect fit in Minnesota.
25. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Pick: IOL O’Cyrus Torrence
This is far from being a very sexy pick, but the Jaguars need to do a better job of strengthening the middle of their line. They really don’t have any good options at left guard, so Torrence could come in and play immediately. With a franchise QB in Trevor Lawrence and a young stud RB in Travis Etienne, they could use a stalwart guard to hold the line down. Torrence is that guy.
26. New York Giants
The Pick: C John Michael Schmitz, Minnesota
Stick with me Giants fans. I know you want a receiver, but again, I just don’t see the value of taking Johnston here when you can get a guy like Jalin Hyatt or Nathaniel Dell in the second round. There are other receivers in this draft, but there aren’t a lot of prospects like John Michael Schmitz. He is known for his quickness and ability to beat defenders to the point of contact as well as his ability to get to the second level and lay blocks down in the run game. The Eagles haven’t had to worry about center for over a decade, which is a pretty nice luxury to have. This is the exact pick Tyler Linderbaum went to the Ravens last year, and he looks like a stud. There is plenty of time to get a receiver (or two) later in the draft. For now, boost your pass protection and run blocking for Saquon and lock down a position for the next 10 years.
27. Dallas Cowboys
The Pick: TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
Kincaid is an absolute steal this late. Mayer is the better overall tight end, but Kincaid is definitely the better receiver. The Cowboys lost tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency, but Kincaid might end up being even better. Between him and CeeDee Lamb, the Cowboys have some seriously good weapons for Dak next year. This is one of the best fits of the draft.
28. Buffalo Bills
The Pick: CB Joey Porter, Jr., Penn State
The Bills do not have the secondary to compete with the Chiefs and Bengals in the AFC. Just a fact. They still have former first round pick Tre’Davious White, but opposite him the cupboard is bare. This pick almost has to be a corner, and luckily for them, Joey Porter falls to them somehow at 27. Porter Jr. is incredibly lengthy and physical, exactly what you need to keep up with those strong Bengals receivers. This pick immediately fills one of the biggest needs for this team and puts them closer to a Super Bowl victory.
29. Cincinnati Bengals
The Pick: DT Calijah Kancey, Pittsburgh
If Kincaid or Mayer somehow fall here, that will be the pick. But alas, that is not what happens here. Instead, the Bengals focus on bolstering the inside of the line. Kancey is small for a DT, but he has almost every pass rush move in the book. He can beat interior linemen in a plethora of ways with the way he is able to generate power on a whim. If he was just a bit bigger, he would be a consensus top 10 pick. He’ll get a lot of Aaron Donald comparisons, but I hope he just puts his head down and focuses on playing. This adds a huge new dimension to the Bengals pass rush. A no-brainer if he lasts here.
30. New Orleans Saints
The Pick: DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
I’m not entirely sure what the Saints game plan is moving forward, but I do know they need a lot of help in the interior of the defensive line. Mazi Smith is an athletic freak who is a brick wall in run coverage and can also get to the passer with ease. He is one of those guys who is so athletically gifted that he will find a way to impact almost every play he is on the field. I don’t know what the Saints see as their biggest need, but the defensive line needs an overhaul, and this is a good start.
31. Philadelphia Eagles
The Pick: RB Jahmir Gibbs, Alabama
Had Jalen Carter not been there at 10, I would have had the Eagles taking Bijan Robinson. As it turns out, they got one of the best defensive players in the draft and still are able to land an elite running back. Robinson gets all the hype, and he should, but rumors are Gibbs has a first round grade from almost every team at this point, and for good reason. Gibbs draws a lot of comparisons to Alvin Kamara for his pure athleticism and mix of power and agility. After losing Miles Sanders in free agency, the Eagles need someone to carry the rock. They find their guy here and easily have the best first round of any team. They’ll be at the top of the NFC for a while.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
The Pick: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Pretty sure Patrick Mahomes will pack his bags and leave if the Chiefs pass on Johnston here. After being heralded as a top-15 pick early in the draft process it has recently come out that teams are not as high on him as previously thought. Stil, Johnston is a 1st round talent and has the talent to become a WR1 in the league. He is one of the only top-tier tall receivers in this class, so the Chiefs should jump on him. Mahomes was able to win the Super Bowl without good receivers before, but I’m not sure he’ll get so lucky in the future.
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